No, Muslims aren’t about to ‘take over’ the UK and enforce Sharia Law

I’ve put forward strong proposals to deal with terrorism and extremism in my booklet ‘Britain Beyond Brexit’; there is a serious issue that we need to deal with as a country, but that issue isn’t a ‘Muslim takeover’ of Britain.

I’m writing this article in response to the kind of comment that I’m seeing over and over again from UKIP members. It’s just not true, and I’m writing to challenge it from a reasoned and evidence-based perspective.

One member wrote an article for UKIPDaily suggesting that “Few UK voters realise the UK’s current legal system and democracy could easily be replaced by Sharia Law as soon as 2040”.

Former UKIP NEC member Anish Patel tweeted yesterday “Eventually, when there is enough of them. They will start up their own political party. And then they will democratically vote for full sharia law and there will be absolutely nothing at all that we can do about it.”

Just half an hour before I started writing this article, Anne-Marie Waters retweeted “All other policies are moot if we’re subject to 2nd class status in Islamic UK.”

All of this would indeed be terrifying, if the evidence weren’t completely against it.

The argument is that ‘the Gatestone Institute projects that in 2021, Muslims will make up 10% of the UK population. That’s 2.2 times the percentage in the 2011 census. And if you keep multiplying by 2.2, you’ll hit 50% in around 2040. Then Muslims will immediately institute Sharia Law in the UK.’

The Gatestone Institute doesn’t provide evidence for that assertion, so the secondary claim is that from 2001 to 2011 the Muslim percentage grew from 2.7% to 4.4%, an increase of 1.6 times, so then they keep multiplying by 1.6 instead.

The problem is that population doesn’t work like that. It doesn’t increase exponentially but settles down over time – the higher the Muslim population gets, the less the impact of immigration on the overall percentage for example.

From 1961 to 1971 the Muslim population increased 5-fold; from 1971 to 1981 2.4-fold; from 1981 to 1991 1.6-fold; from 1991 to 2001 1.6-fold and from 2001 to 2011 1.6-fold. Those numbers would have continued to decline dramatically were it not for the increase in immigration under Blair, and (because the Muslim population is now higher) the immigration effect will lessen even if immigration itself were to remain high.

There is no mathematical argument whatsoever for assuming such exponential growth could continue – it would require immigration levels from Muslim countries to be 10 to 20 times higher than they are now.

Yet the human brain ‘likes’ such projections. It’s the reason why so many people fall for pyramid-selling schemes for example.

The Muslim birth rate may well be higher than that of the general population at present, which does (slowly – and we-re talking a century or two, not a decade or two) impact upon the Muslim population. But hang on a second: that’s normally the case in countries with lower life expectancies than the UK. It’s not a religious reason for having more kids, it’s something likely to decrease in the second, third, and fourth generations of those coming to the UK.

Pew Research (who are the people the anti-Muslims in UKIP like to quote) have actually done the analysis based on actual birth rates (Muslim women in Europe have on average 2.2 children at present), immigration rates and conversion rates, and they conclude that by 2050 the UK population is likely to be 11.3% Muslim. See The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050, Pew Research.

Then, and somewhat bizarrely, nobody really seems to consider the documented likelihood that any Muslims at all are becoming integrated into the UK.

The ICM poll – the most comprehensive ever conducted – shows that of British Muslims, 49% of those born in the UK (compared with 32% of those born outside the UK) either ‘never’ attend mosque or do so ‘only on special occasions’. And that figure by any measure, is rising over time: it’s just 18% for those aged 65+ and 46% for those aged 18-24 for example.

Do we really, honestly, think that they’re plotting a Muslim takeover of Britain if they don’t even turn up to their local mosque? Seriously? Because EVEN IF – and it’s already a statistical nonsense – the UK became ‘majority Muslim’ do we really think the rising percentage of ‘in name only’ Muslims would support the introduction of Sharia?

Well we can check that against the polling data too. Instead of asking what Muslims in other countries think (which is where the higher figures such as the claimed 75% come from), we’d be well advised to ask what Muslims actually in the UK think.

(And before anyone suggests that Muslims ‘lie’ to opinion polls because they’re engaging in ‘taqiyya’ – which unbelievably is actually a serious suggestion in some quarters, a) Many Muslims are admitting in the same poll to various views which are somewhat illiberal – and b) They would hardly lie about not attending mosque if their aim were to promote Islam: they’d pretend they were more devout than they are not less.)

It shows that 6% of 18-24 year old Muslims ‘strongly support’ Sharia law in ‘areas’ of Britain and a further 18% ‘tend to support’ it. At most, that’s 24% rather than 75% – which is a whole lot less alarming. In actual fact, it’s probably a lot less because:

a) The reference is to ‘areas’ rather than across Britain
b) ‘Tend to support’ is lukewarm support, which would be unlikely to be an attitude of someone keen on a democratic takeover to force that point of view across society
c) Polling of Muslims is almost always in ‘high output areas’ which pretty much by definition polls the least integrated into British society, thus skewing the data

That 24% is, in fact, lower than that for older age groups: it’s 30% (note rounding error) for those aged 65+, of which 14% (compared with 6%) ‘strongly support it. This would imply to me that younger Muslims are perhaps less likely to support the introduction of Sharia.

The same poll finds that support is far lower amongst those born in the UK (5% strongly support, 14% tend to support) than those born overseas (8% support, 19% tend to support). It seems likely therefore that these figures will decline further, as each generation goes by.

So even if there were a Muslim majority in the UK by 2100, which is itself incredibly unlikely for the above reasons, there are strong reasons to suppose that only a very small percentage of them would support Sharia law.

21 replies
    • Linda Godden
      Linda Godden says:

      I recently did a You Tube Clip (see last line) trying to explain the only way we can overcome terrorism and the gradual assault of the Muslim Culture over our own. One comment said “All Muslims are Loving” but as I have tried to describe on my video clip and in my reply to this coment, the book they believe and follow is not loving. They believe it is the perfect word of God even though it refers us back to also read the Bible and the Gospels, their leaders still teach to only follow the Prophet of the Qur’an, the Quran does not say that. If we follow the Quran alone it says “not to be friends with Jews and Christians”. Is that a loving command? It says to be harsh with unbelievers (of the Quran) and harsh with women, and to slay unbelievers in certain cicumstances. It calls unbelievers pigs and apes and without intelligence. Is that loving? All these dressed or professing to be Muslims believe all these words, they may speak of peace, yet in their hearts these words will prevail for they are believed to be of God. We had yet another terrorist attack yesterday 14.08.18 at Westminster because of these words. We think they are like us ith the same aims but they are not, for their book teaches otherwise. I am trying to provide a peaceful solution in my video to respectfully resolve this. I need yourself and others to see the truth of the matter and not close your eyes to it and deceive yourself and others that is will just go away on its own. Of 32 mayors in London 1/3rd are Muslim, we have a Home Secretary and Muslim Mayor and numerous other Muslim Lords and a MPs. There are supposedly only about 3 million Muslims in Britain.This is a lot of political power and influence for so few. As some have said below, are these figures correct. As Mark Twain and Benjamin Disraeli said “There are lies, damned lies and statistcs”. If we do not resolve this belief system (of all faiths) and we wait until 2060 or 2040 and Mr Arnot is wrong about the Muslim numbers here b then it will be too late to do anything about it for Muslims may have full Political control by then. Will he just say “sorry” like Labour and Jack Straw did when they under estimated the Eastern Europeans that would come in 2004? We still pay the price for that no social homes, stressed NHS, no school places, homeless on the street doubled in 7 years
      council home waiting list up 90% since 1998 1 in 5 on list is Romanin and 1 in 9 Polish (or vice versa). ( Boris & The Burkha. A New Vision For Religion In Britain)

      • R Adkins
        R Adkins says:

        Yes I agree with you. Muslims are commanded to kill the rest of us, To turn on us and all I can do is stand back and wait and watch for it to happen. I’m 48 and I was never racist ever, but if I voice anything I am seen as being so, even if I am half Dutch/English with a bit of Welsh in there. The Bible talks about The Graet Tribulation when Christians are persecuted for Christ, maybe I will be alive to face this. I am affraid, I will have to stand up for myself!

  1. Average citizen
    Average citizen says:

    I am a white British male married to a black lady and in no way racist. I am not saying muslims are here to take over and I believe they have every right to be here. But I do feel there is an issue regarding “official” figures. I have worked all over this country for the past 28 years and I cant help but ask why the government insists on falsifying the percentage of Muslims living here. 5.5 to 6% is an insult to the peoples intelligence. I lived in Blackburn for 9 years and the official figures there are 28% Asian !!! I can assure you 45/50% is an accurate assessment. Similarly figures of 12% in Bolton (where I’ve lived for past 3 years) and 18% for Bradford (where I work regularly) are both very shy of the truth. And its a similar story in so many other towns. So it begs the question..why the lies ?? Is it for fear of the indigenous population realising the truth and causing uproar ? Or maybe its simply no political party can afford to lose the Muslim vote because its s basically keeping them in power ! Or maybe you don’t want the Muslims to realise just how much power they truly have ?? Most likely its all the above or my theory which is that theres about 15 million more people in this country than the govt will admit to and thats why the countrys infrastructure cant cope… nhs schools police roads transport …everything is buckling under the strain….so wats the solution to prevent serious unrest in years to come ? We will knock 15 million muslims off the census figures and with a bit of luck we might reach our pensions before the people find out !!!! Im not a politician or a cynic… just a hardworking guy who believes what his eyes show him more than any words from any mouth. The eyes dont lie !!! Just the opinion of an ordinary brit for what its worth.

  2. Concerned citizen
    Concerned citizen says:

    I have worried about this for some time also especially now I have a young daughter who I want to live in a free society. After seeing how the grooming scandals of young British children where shockingly ignored and burried by the police, government and mainstream media it was looking like a very dark future us all. It still sickens me to think that so many in authority knew what was going on and did nothing, and even worst still punished those who tried to talk out.

    I believe that those in the police and government that tried to cover this up were complicit and should have been sentenced with the rapists.

    More often than not however anyone that tries to speak out about some of the things they see or witness gets called a bigot or racist if they question the ideology that motivates them.

    Also laws that are brought in under the pretext of protecting people from abuse are then used in a sinister way to slience decenting views. Someone who may speak out about certain things in the Koran or in the Islamic community can be called an islamophobe and charged under the current hate crime laws. Why can’t anyone freely debate and be critical of certain Islamic views if they are in opposition to western ideals and beliefs?

    To top this off I have also seen statistics that state that by 2060 the indigenous white British population will be in the minority due to lower than replacement birth rates and immigration.

    This worries me as I feel that gradually we are seeing British nationality identity and culture disappear and it saddens me to think this may become lost for future generations.

    I feel the government should be doing more to tackle terrorism, intolerance and promoting the positive values the native British still hold. Instead we are told that we shouldn’t because somehow being proud of being British is somehow racist.

    • Michael Schettl
      Michael Schettl says:

      It’s the same in the Us. Its why Trumps popularly has sored because hes the only one with the balls to call it huh ow he sees it & like the UK they try’en brand him as a racist for it.

    • Ann
      Ann says:

      You are so right inwhat you say I too worry about the future for my children and my grandchildren I hopefully won’t see it but it’s something I worry about daily the government sees intent on destroying British culture?

  3. Pete
    Pete says:

    Ah your wrong about Muslims not taking over the UK. That’s their soul purpose. Ask a few . There s no go areas in all major city’s for non Muslims with their backward sharia law. More than 80% of them are scrounging off the state. Not working.

  4. Michelle Fleming
    Michelle Fleming says:

    I have just bought a small property in the middle of nowhere in Scotland. The reason I did this is, if there is an invasion or a takeover, I’m in a place that is so remote and has no military or political significance that nobody would look at it twice. The village has no blacks and no foreigners. It is so insignificant that there are no job opportunities for anybody at all. And that is exactly what I want. But it is so sad that I have had to go to these extremes to ensure my safety for when “the bomb drops”. I have taken early retirement because I know that if I had carried on working in the city, by the time my regular retirement was due, it would have been too late. We are going to be taken over by Poles, Muslims, Russians, Hungarians, Spanish, Italians etc…etc… that Britain is just not going to be Britain anymore within the next couple of years. Thank God that I found this little jewel in the middle of nowhere that is 100% Scottish. I’m moving in December and at least I have peace of mind that no blacks or Muslims will be my neighbours. Just good, Scottish farmers and village folk.

  5. Amanda Huygnkis
    Amanda Huygnkis says:

    Just thought I’d post some stuff from an actual Muslim:


    UK is 30 years away from being a muslim country. If current immigration trends remain the same as well as the birthrates of muslims vs non muslims continues at the current rate. As someone said recently – The British are finished, all they are doing now is waiting for the generation that will genocide them on their own land to grow up.

    I’m a Muslim by the way so I think it’s fantastic and really cannot believe how easy conquering Britain has proven to be, Hitler should have left the Luftwaffe at home and sent child rapists.

    Muslim wives are averaging 3.2 kids each, Muslim immigration figures for the past 10 years average out at more than 400,000 per annum and it is rising. The three largest population centres in the UK (London, Birmingham and Manchester) are already majority non white, by far the largest single demographic is muslim and Muslim school children are projected to become the majority in 2019.

    There are also many smaller towns and cities that reflect the same situation, it is only rural areas and a few minor towns and cities that hold out, however, thanks to new policies introduced by Theresa May they are currently seeing the fastest rise in Muslim populations in British history.

    It is done, even if the british slammed the doors shut right now and limited Muslim men to a single child (which they will never ever do) then Muslim will be a majority in the UK in terms of men of fighting age by 2035.

    Remember the average age of a Muslim in the UK is 22, the average age of a native Brit is 47 and the muslims are getting younger and more numerous and the brits are getting older and less numerous, do the math.

    The trouble is any cataclysm will not end well for the Brits, they are aging and a very scared population, where else could a foreign invader come in and begin the organised systematic rape of their kids and face no backlash? Even the Buddhists in Myanmar and the Slavs in the Balkans have more balls than that. I know the british, they still have a few hard men but we are talking about maybe one in a thousand. The vast majority are feminised cowardly cuckolds, either fat and lazy or scrawny and weak, there are more Jihadis in Birmingham with actual battlefield experience than the brits have in their entire armed forces, and we all know about the police, many of them are with us on the side of the rape Jihad, the rest are pussies.

    no, I am afraid that Britain is living on borrowed time, and amazingly the vast majority of Brits do not even seem to be aware of what’s coming, even when we tell them they seem unable to process the facts.

    By my estimations 50% of the native brits are asleep, 35% are on our side and andmaybe they have a couple of million who are aware and able to fight, unfortunately for them they have no guns, they have no protection, no strong community spirit, no social cohesion, but Islam is the opposite, we are preparing every day to rise up and finally rid ourselves of these degenerate pigs, every town and city has leadership, we are organised into brigades, we fly overseas and gain war time, we return and train our kids, the british government is helping us by bringing in hundreds of thousands of fighters every year, we have arms caches all over the country, when it goes off the Brits are going to freeze like rabbits in the headlights as the machetes and AK’s are brought into their homes.

    5%? Imagine believing the official statistics, it’s closer to 9%

    But that is irrelevant at this point, there are 50 majority Muslim countries in the world and they all have one thing in common, despite that fact that it can take hundreds of years to reach 5%, because of course some populations resist and push back against Islam, the one fact that should terrify not only Brits, but Swedes, French, Germans, Belgians etc is this…
    Muslims have NEVER FAILED to Islamize a country within 75 years of reaching 5% of the population.

    I’ll say it again, although it can take centuries to reach 5% (or a couple of decades if you are a 20th century liberal European democracy haha), once that threshold has been reached Muslims have never failed to hit 51% within 75 years.

    It’s over for the Brits.


    I’m sure it’s just an well-intended carnard.

    • Eva Belvoir
      Eva Belvoir says:

      Amanda- where did the comment come from? Who is the actual muslim- i sure would love to chat with him! Direct him to my facebook under my name Eva BELVOIR of Manchester uk please. I would be DELIGHTED to chat with them!

  6. Eva Belvoir
    Eva Belvoir says:

    It is sad but true that the one thing Britain lacks is COMMUNITY! Muslims ghettoize areas of Britain with tight knit communities of their own, making them impregnable fortresses to the indigenous British local. They do this through language, culture and religion whilst playing the race card when challenged. All the while, their men rape our women and children, spreading their mongrel half breed offspring, they hook our children on their imported heroin and weed, they buy our homes and businesses and leave us impoverished! And guess what- WE ALLOW IT WITH OUR WEAK LEFTISM AND INCOHERENT LACK OF SOLIDARITY! FUCK ISLAM, FUCK MOHAMMED, FUCK YOUR SHARIA LAW, FUCK YOUR KORAN, FUCK YOUR HIJABS AND FUCK YOUR JIHAD- WHEN YOU COME FOR ME OR MINE, I WILL BE READY FOR YOU!

  7. kevin king
    kevin king says:

    The author should ask himself why the UK has hate crime laws that are seeing up to 4000 people a year being locked up for sending mean-minded tweets. You don’t need a majority of Muslims in order for Sharia to be imposed on this country. You don’t need a majority of Muslims going to the Mosque. The nazis conquered Germany with a miniscule minority , but they were fanatical and imposed their will on the suppliant majority, which is exactly what is happening in the UK. The Muslim Brotherhood is very active across the West, including in the UK. You need to wake up.

  8. Marc anthony
    Marc anthony says:

    Why on earth would we believe any mps as your all full of shit and lies, i mean look at the government covering up the grooming scandal

  9. Chris Brown
    Chris Brown says:

    I have to agree, I live in Dewsbury, some of the bombers have come from Dewsbury, one went to Iraq and blew himself up, another was involved in the 7/11 bombings. Goodness me, I walked around Dewsbury today, and the white rose centre in Leeds.
    White rose centre in Leeds full, Dewsbury, Dead. If you want to see what Islam has done to Dewsbury, the evidence is here. Unfortunately with no backing from the government, this is the sad situation we are all facing as Brits.

    My town of Dewsbury has the biggest teaching mosque in Europe, were there are big events happening from time to time and it gridlocks our town.

    Our local area, Dewsbury East was probably one of the few areas that was left were there was only an handful of muslims, now we are seeing them come in in droves, every time the English White sell their house, in they come, which is bringing our house prices down. Which begs the reason were they worth that in the first place, which we all no that house prices at their current worth, are not worth the price anyway. But regardless off this. Our local junior school now has a muslim head teacher, this being a C of E school by the way, but I have just found out recently of someone who has moved away from our area that the vicar of Kirklees was voted off the council, and in came a muslim, that’s why that happened by the way. But on saying this, out went the cross off the building, which was the chimney pot, they said it was health and safety it had to come down, bit of a puzzle that to me when it was concrete steel reinforced, maybe they could of repaired it, I’m sure they could. But guess what, they took the cross off the school uniform, oh dear, oh dear. So there you go, a muslim head teacher and out goes the cross, what a shame. why has labour and conservative leaders allowed this to happen? It’s hardly surprising that we do NOT trust in our leaders anymore, and yet they still wonder why? Well this is what happens when God has been totally taken out of the situation, when God actually wants the best for us. And governments should wake up, that God is above and over them. It is hardly surprising that when our leaders take their eyes off God, that these kind of situations that we are all in are happening. It is our leaders that are at fault, that constantly say, islam is not taking over, or muslims are not taking over. They walk around blind, that they do not see. And if you think that I havn’t talked to them about it, I have, they don’t seem to answer any of your questions on the elephant in the room, and this is the reply: “I can’t answer any of your questions.” What a weak leadership we have. Come and have a look at Dewsbury yourself if you don’t believe me, and go and stand in the que at the Halifax bank were there is no Christmas tree and no decorations, and ask yourself when you look at who serves you behind the counter and ask yourselves why? I’m pretty sure you will answer it? My heart sinks for Dewsbury, but I really do feel that the English brits, as I am one myself, need to get back to church, ask Christ into their hearts and lives to become a Christian and start building our churches up again and then we will see God work. We as English need our community back again, we need to start believing in our selves again, as we have watched our government bat us over the heads with the race card, and its political correctness, which has so destroyed areas of our country. Only God can heal the wounds, were governments fail to lead. And if you want to no why the government is failing, quite simple, they have taken their eyes off God.

  10. joe
    joe says:

    Such naivety. Muslims don’t HAVE to be a majority to subvert a country and cause mayhem. The Muslim population of the Philippines is well under 10%, but tens of thousands have died in Islam-related violence over the past few decades. Thailand has a Muslim minority, and there is an insurgency in their area. China has had decades of trouble with its Eastern Turks (who have legitimate grievances by the way). India has long been wracked by Hindu-Muslim violence. Meanwhile, in the Arab world, Christians and Jews have been mostly swept out of North Africa and decimated in the Mideast (and in Pakistan). Nigerian Christians are being persecuted by Islamists. Western Europe is experiencing regular peacetime savagery that has not been seen here since mediaeval times. Nearly all of it caused by a single cult. I could go on and on. Perhaps it’s easier to mention the one place I know of where militant Islam is not a big problem, Singapore. Everywhere else, where Islam has established itself, there is political and social trouble and a lot of dying. Open your eyes, JA, for Pete’s sake. It’s irrelevant how “reasonable” Muslims in the UK are (and at an individual level, most of them are). The point is, they belong to a dictatorial cult that is not, and which can mobilise most of them, through faith calls or intimidation, at the drop of a hat.


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