An Independent North East politician has slammed false Remain claims that the North East economy will drop by 16% in the event of a hard Brexit, suggesting that they are not only misinterpreting Treasury data, but that the data has a proven track record of being flawed.
Jonathan Arnott, an independent member of the European Parliament for North East England, said:
“Actual recent empirical evidence suggests that we shouldn’t believe a word of it. Let’s look at the facts from recent Treasury predictions.
“The Treasury projected that the UK would fall into recession and lose between 3% and 6% of GDP in the last 18 months. Real data shows the economy has grown in every single quarter. They projected the loss of between half a million and 800,000 jobs over the last 18 months. The reality is that jobs have been created.
“Now they’re projecting not over 18 months but over 15 years. If they’re so wildly wrong in 18 months, why does anyone suppose they’ll be right over 15 years? For pity’s sake, even Government Ministers are saying these figures should come with a health warning.
“The reason these figures are always out is that they consider the downside rather than the upside. Nobody ever factors in the benefits of Brexit; the ability to negotiate trade deals with third countries, the ability to get rid of unnecessary EU regulations, or run a more competitive economic policy.
“Here in the North East, the figures have the worst projections in the UK – and why? Because for a region that trades more than any other with non-EU countries, the failure to consider the benefits of Brexit will mean the figures are more wrong than anywhere else in the UK.
“Now there’s all kinds of misinformation and propaganda being spread about this: continuity Remainers are trying to make it sound like these figures predict the economy contracting. In fact, they predict it growing at a slower rate.
“The 16% prediction is a worst-case scenario, spread over 15 years, and is based upon about as much proven track record as using a crystal ball to predict this week’s lottery results,” said Mr Arnott.